Social Safety Nets with Growing Holes

After much hoopla, Congress finally began its Christmas vacation last week.

House or Senate plan, public or private, it really doesn't matter - what the politicians seem to have forgotten is that any plan must be underwritten correctly and with the appropriate safeguards or it won't be solvent. For some reason, beneficiaries tend to get upset there is no money to pay claims.

The CBO takes a snapshot in time approach to financial analysis. This static accounting approach does not account for the way human beings react in the real world, a fact they readily admit with multiple disclaimer footnotes in all their reports. Rather, what is needed is an underwriting analysis of the proposals. Underwriters try to predict the future given past behavior, human nature, changing market conditions and nature of the risk pool. The fact that accountants rather than underwriters are determining the feasibility of our social welfare programs may explain why Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are projected to have a combined deficit of well over $100 Trillion into the future.

Underwriting isn't sexy enough for the politicians, which is no doubt why they ignore it entirely. Underwriting is risk assessment, and sometimes risk management; the very words convey dullness and boredom. No, it's much more exciting for Democrats to accuse Republicans of wanting you to die, and die quickly, and for Republicans to say that Democrats want to kill Granny. But where does this leave the American people? Don't we deserve better?